Just five months into his second term, President Donald Trump is already navigating choppy political waters. New polling data paints a picture of growing unease among Americans: his overall approval rating has slipped below 50 percent, long‑standing Republican strongholds are showing cracks, and a series of international flare‑ups has tested the administration’s diplomatic credentials.

According to a mid‑July survey by The Daily Boulder, only 45 percent of voters now rate Trump’s job performance positively, while 46 percent disapprove and 9 percent remain undecided. That marks a notable drop from January, when his approval hovered at 49 percent. Although a four‑point decline may seem modest, it represents a wider undercurrent of dissatisfaction, particularly as the nation edges closer to the 2026 midterms and both parties scramble to lock down support.

The fractures run deep. Just 48 percent of respondents believe the country is on the right track, while a slim majority—53 percent—feel America is veering off course. Those figures have significant implications: a president whose approval and directional ratings both sit in the mid‑40s is often vulnerable in midterm contests, when turnout skews toward the more motivated opposition.

Independents, long the key to swinging elections, have shifted decisively. Emerson College’s Spencer Kimball notes that 37 percent now favor Democratic congressional candidates, overtaking the 27 percent who back Republicans, with a sizable 36 percent still undecided. That ambivalence could prove pivotal in swing districts, where a last‑minute drift toward one party often determines the outcome.

Perhaps the most startling data point comes from Texas, a state Trump carried by double digits in both 2016 and 2020.

A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll shows just 44 percent of Texans now approving of his performance, while 51 percent disapprove. Even among committed state Republicans, support has dipped—from 89 percent in April to 87 percent today. While still a strong base, it suggests that no Republican turf is completely immune from the national mood.

Economic frustration lies at the heart of much of this discontent. Fifty-one percent of Texans say they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and 52 percent criticize his approach to inflation and the cost of living. High prices at the grocery store and rising interest rates have left many voters feeling squeezed, prompting them to question the administration’s fiscal strategy.

On the world stage, Trump’s approval faced yet another test when he ordered airstrikes on suspected Iranian nuclear facilities. Tehran retaliated by launching missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq and Qatar—only to have their assault partially thwarted by missile‑defense systems.

At a recent NATO summit, Trump recounted the exchange with characteristic brio: “They called ahead and asked, ‘Is a one‑o’clock strike OK?’ I said, ‘Sure, as long as it hits nothing.’ And hit nothing it did—our defenses stopped every missile.” Supporters praised the show of strength, but critics argued his flippant tone risked trivializing a potentially catastrophic escalation.

In an unexpected twist, Trump also brokered a temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, reviving memories of his first term’s high‑profile Middle East diplomacy. By portraying himself simultaneously as the aggressor who struck Iran’s nuclear capabilities and as the peacemaker who halted wider conflict, he has reinscribed his signature “deal‑maker” persona—though not without courting charges that he is mixing political theater with national security.

Through it all, Trump’s core supporters remain fiercely loyal: over 80 percent of GOP voters continue to back his leadership, lauding his stances on immigration, defense spending, and law enforcement. For them, his willingness to “tell it like it is” and to stand up to both foreign adversaries and domestic critics overrides economic complaints. That loyalty underpins his political resilience and will likely serve as a bulwark against more serious erosion of his base.

Yet if Trump hopes to regain ground with moderates and independents, he must deliver tangible wins—whether a sudden economic uptick, a legislative breakthrough, or a deft diplomatic coup. History shows that presidents can rebound from sagging mid‑term numbers, provided they seize control of the narrative and produce outcomes that touch everyday lives.

As 2026’s midterms loom, these approval figures will be watched avidly both in Washington and on the campaign trail. Republicans must assess whether their once‑impenetrable strongholds are at risk, while Democrats look for opportunities to flip seats.

Meanwhile, Trump’s team will be hard at work crafting messages to shore up wavering supporters and to convince the undecided that his brand of leadership still offers the most promising path forward.

For now, a divided America confronts familiar challenges: economic anxiety, global uncertainty, and questions about the nation’s direction. Whether these headwinds become tailwinds for a Democratic comeback or whether Trump can steady his course remains to be seen. What is certain is that the coming months will be critical for the president, his party, and indeed the future of American politics.